CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Tue 31 Jan 06:00 - Wed 01 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 31 Jan 00:15 (UTC)
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE

Thunderstorms are forecast across the southern Mediterranean Sea

SYNOPSIS

A large blocking high pressure area causes stable weather conditions over much of Europe. In the southern Mediterranean Sea near Libya a low pressure area and an unstable airmass is present.

DISCUSSION

...southern Mediterranean...
GFS-indicated MLCAPE values may reach into several hundred J/kg, causing scattered thunderstorms over sea, mostly between Sardinia, Sicily, Tunesia and Libya. Later in the forecast period the activity may weaken and drift eastwards. A few severe gusts are not ruled out with this activity, occurring in a fairly strong flow. However, vertical shear is expected to be only weak to moderate, precluding development of organised systems or mesocyclonic updrafts.

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